TOURNAMENT CHANCES
Chances of winning each round, based on ratings, draw and sites
Chance of less than .005% is not shown
Dark rules delineate between semistates
ORIGINAL PRE-TOURNAMENT CHANCES
CLASS 4A
1. MUNSTER
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Crown Point 84.43% 30.60% .79% .17%
Lake Central 12.46% 1.10%
Hammond Central 2.36% .12%
Munster .75% .02%
2. VALPARAISO
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Valparaiso 97.90% 22.52% 4.85% 1.91%
Merrillville 1.37% .01%
Portage .49%
Hobart .24%
3. PENN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Penn 96.30% 67.82% 4.53% 1.50%
South Bend Adams 2.02% .20%
South Bend Riley .92% .06%
LaPorte .75% .07%
Michigan City .01%
South Bend Washington
4. GOSHEN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Warsaw 83.50% 70.53% 41.36% 29.59%
Northridge 15.94% 6.86% 1.05% .34%
Elkhart .54% .07%
Concord .03%
5. CARROLL (FORT WAYNE)
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Fort Wayne Snider 54.84% 6.90% .43% .09%
Fort Wayne Northrop 28.15% 2.13% .06% .01%
Carroll (Fort Wayne) 17.00% .40%
Fort Wayne North
6. FORT WAYNE SOUTH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Homestead 57.20% 52.46% 23.30% 15.25%
Norwell 42.78% 38.11% 13.92% 8.17%
Huntington North .02%
Fort Wayne Wayne
7. MCCUTCHEON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
McCutcheon 66.41% 27.92% 1.57% .46%
Lafayette Jeff 24.23% 5.95% .09% .01%
Harrison (West Lafayette) 5.38% .37%
Kokomo 3.98% .24%
8. CARMEL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Hamilton Southeastern 71.86% 53.93% 7.82% 3.61%
Carmel 13.86% 5.84% .11% .02%
Zionsville 10.86% 4.72% .10% .02%
Noblesville 3.41% 1.03% .01%
9. PENDLETON HEIGHTS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Pendleton Heights 95.24% 50.29% 8.68% 2.53%
Greenfield-Central 3.29% .25%
Anderson 1.26% .05%
Richmond .20%
10. NORTH CENTRAL (INDIANAPOLIS)
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Lawrence Central 86.94% 41.87% 22.07% 10.26%
Lawrence North 7.24% .99% .09% .01%
North Central (Indianapolis) 5.82% .61% .04%
Indianapolis Arsenal Tech
11. PLAINFIELD
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Pike 65.18% 40.64% 25.05% 13.53%
Brownsburg 27.56% 13.72% 6.35% 2.64%
Plainfield 6.76% 2.12% .49% .12%
Avon .50% .05%
12. CENTER GROVE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Center Grove 57.59% 29.69% 5.00% 1.43%
Franklin Central 37.04% 18.39% 2.83% .77%
Decatur Central 5.36% 1.32% .04%
Southport .01%
13. TERRE HAUTE NORTH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Bloomington South 79.26% 36.38% 4.00% .77%
Terre Haute South 11.61% 1.43% .01%
Bloomington North 7.02% .91%
Martinsville 2.11% .12%
14. COLUMBUS EAST
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Columbus North 40.59% 13.80% .91% .13%
Franklin 38.72% 17.07% 2.02% .41%
East Central 20.39% 6.92% .45% .06%
Whiteland .30% .01%
15. NEW ALBANY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Floyd Central 80.72% 54.84% 10.25% 2.76%
Bedford North Lawrence 11.64% 4.50% .10% .01%
New Albany 6.63% 1.68% .01%
Seymour 1.01% .14%
16. CASTLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Evansville Reitz 56.89% 40.76% 9.76% 3.07%
Castle 34.74% 18.20% 1.71% .30%
Gibson Southern 8.16% 3.24% .15% .02%
Evansville Harrison .20% .01%
CLASS 3A
17. CALUMET
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Highland 49.41% 9.75% .11% .01%
Hammond Noll 43.93% 7.23% .06%
East Chicago Central 4.84% .26%
Griffith 1.82% .05%
18. KANKAKEE VALLEY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Kankakee Valley 61.57% 19.65% 1.35% .18%
Lowell 22.72% 4.62% .13% .01%
Hanover Central 15.56% 1.33% .01%
River Forest .15%
19. MISHAWAKA MARIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
South Bend St. Joseph 68.62% 60.23% 8.56% 2.07%
Culver Academy 22.92% 17.53% .94% .12%
John Glenn 7.45% 4.65% .09% .01%
Mishawaka Marian 1.01% .30%
20. TIPPECANOE VALLEY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Columbia City 50.26% 41.73% 11.02% 3.77%
Fairfield 28.40% 18.60% 1.83% .31%
Tippecanoe Valley 20.60% 13.89% 1.52% .28%
NorthWood .75% .17%
21. EAST NOBLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
East Noble 57.15% 9.72% 2.41% .57%
DeKalb 15.09% .73% .02%
Angola 11.37% .97% .09% .01%
Leo 7.60% .46% .02%
Garrett 4.84% .25% .01%
Fort Wayne Concordia 3.95% .11%
22. MISSISSINEWA
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Bellmont 97.15% 87.22% 56.90% 32.15%
Marion 2.09% .51% .01%
Mississinewa .62% .03%
Heritage .13%
23. WESTERN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Maconaquah 53.00% 15.25% .81% .12%
Peru 26.79% 4.22% .07% .01%
Western 18.36% .98%
West Lafayette 1.70% .10%
Logansport .14%
Northwestern .01%
24. YORKTOWN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Connersville 50.97% 43.15% 9.67% 3.44%
Delta 23.68% 18.37% 2.51% .65%
Jay County 19.47% 14.69% 1.74% .41%
Yorktown 5.87% 3.25% .11% .01%
25. LEBANON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Brebeuf Jesuit 73.99% 36.48% 1.33% .28%
Tri-West 13.30% 4.12% .04%
Danville 8.95% 2.41% .02%
Lebanon 3.70% .49%
Crawfordsville .06%
Frankfort
26. INDIANAPOLIS SHORTRIDGE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Indianapolis Cathedral 43.37% 15.99% 2.82% .96%
Purdue Englewood 34.50% 11.49% 1.66% .51%
Indianapolis Shortridge 11.63% 1.85% .06% .01%
Indianapolis Attucks 10.50% 1.60% .05% .01%
27. EDGEWOOD
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Edgewood 44.22% 24.14% .81% .16%
Northview 40.66% 25.96% 1.54% .41%
Owen Valley 13.09% 5.98% .11% .02%
Cascade 2.03% .42%
28. RUSHVILLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Indianapolis Roncalli 66.67% 54.14% 24.62% 14.70%
New Palestine 13.85% 6.95% .85% .23%
Shelbyville 11.86% 5.45% .41% .09%
Indian Creek 6.49% 2.18% .10% .02%
Beech Grove 1.13% .35% .01%
Greenwood
29. FRANKLIN COUNTY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Greensburg 56.26% 33.84% 13.83% 8.57%
Jennings County 42.92% 22.94% 7.76% 4.34%
Batesville .44% .03%
Franklin County .28% .02%
Lawrenceburg .11% .01%
South Dearborn
30. CHARLESTOWN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Madison 37.92% 14.29% 3.61% 1.72%
Silver Creek 35.49% 17.41% 6.34% 3.69%
Charlestown 26.24% 11.45% 3.00% 1.46%
North Harrison .35% .02%
31. VINCENNES LINCOLN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Washington 80.09% 64.51% 26.88% 17.18%
Princeton 18.10% 8.15% .60% .17%
Vincennes Lincoln 1.78% .40%
Southridge .02%
32. EVANSVILLE CENTRAL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Evansville Central 78.78% 24.73% 3.50% 1.32%
Boonville 15.93% 2.08% .04% .01%
Evansville Memorial 4.83% .13%
Mount Vernon (Posey) .46%
CLASS 2A
33. WHEELER
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Andrean 49.57% 8.39% .13% .02%
Wheeler 44.40% 5.67% .05%
Whiting 4.07% .07%
Hebron 1.89% .02%
Boone Grove .07%
Gary 21st Century
34. LAVILLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Bremen 87.61% 79.18% 17.67% 8.23%
Winamac 8.36% 5.13% .08% .01%
LaVille 3.52% 1.42% .01%
Knox .50% .11%
35. LAKELAND
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Eastside 77.62% 21.54% 5.63% 2.21%
Central Noble 13.29% 1.08% .04%
Westview 5.28% .33% .01%
Lakeland 3.80% .15%
36. WOODLAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Whitko 73.23% 61.60% 39.29% 27.59%
Bluffton 22.32% 14.43% 4.82% 2.20%
Adams Central 2.71% .57% .01%
Fort Wayne Luers 1.74% .31% .01%
37. BENTON CENTRAL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Rensselaer Central 65.22% 37.65% 12.13% 6.12%
Benton Central 31.74% 11.48% 1.57% .49%
Delphi 1.66% .20%
Seeger 1.38% .15%
38. WABASH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Oak Hill 60.77% 35.73% 3.48% 1.10%
Lewis Cass 33.07% 17.63% 1.26% .34%
Rochester 6.13% 1.88% .03%
Wabash .03%
39. LAPEL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Lapel 97.85% 50.48% 10.71% 4.25%
Frankton 1.49% .04%
Tipton .65% .01%
Taylor
40. WAPAHANI
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Alexandria 94.18% 44.54% 3.07% .82%
Blackford 3.31% .14%
Wapahani 1.96% .06%
Muncie Burris .55% .01%
41. SOUTH PUTNAM
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Parke Heritage 81.00% 40.46% 2.51% .45%
North Putnam 10.80% 2.26% .02%
South Putnam 8.20% 1.29% .01%
South Vermillion
42. PARK TUDOR
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Monrovia 48.34% 32.07% 3.56% .89%
University 21.68% 10.83% .46% .07%
Park Tudor 15.40% 6.63% .18% .02%
Covenant Christian 14.58% 6.46% .19% .02%
43. HERITAGE CHRISTIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Triton Central 45.37% 41.09% 12.33% 4.96%
Heritage Christian 40.47% 32.82% 4.44% 1.06%
Eastern Hancock 14.16% 11.53% 1.60% .39%
Indianapolis Scecina .01%
Christel House
Irvington Prep
44. HAGERSTOWN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Union County 64.29% 12.49% .40% .04%
Shenandoah 22.65% 1.48% .01%
Hagerstown 11.09% .55%
Centerville 1.98% .03%
45. AUSTIN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Austin 55.02% 29.39% 6.19% 2.33%
Brownstown Central 26.62% 15.56% 4.01% 1.70%
Southwestern (Hanover) 15.73% 6.91% .95% .28%
South Ripley 2.14% .67% .05% .01%
Switzerland County .49% .05%
Brown County
46. EASTERN (PEKIN)
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Providence 49.46% 29.32% 8.41% 3.80%
Eastern (Pekin) 28.52% 12.45% 1.95% .62%
Crawford County 20.43% 5.51% .35% .07%
Clarksville .86% .05%
Salem .44% .05%
Paoli .29% .03%
47. EASTERN GREENE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
South Knox 52.18% 33.80% 20.18% 12.12%
North Knox 36.93% 21.55% 11.04% 5.87%
Linton 10.84% 2.38% .22% .04%
West Vigo .05%
48. TELL CITY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Evansville Mater Dei 58.00% 32.76% 19.30% 11.46%
North Posey 16.28% 3.91% .73% .19%
Perry Central 9.56% 1.84% .24% .05%
South Spencer 9.44% 1.99% .30% .07%
Forest Park 6.71% 1.77% .38% .11%
Pike Central
CLASS 1A
49. MORGAN TWP.
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Marquette Catholic 93.90% 81.25% 63.87% 51.81%
Westville 3.42% .89% .11% .02%
Tri-Township 1.68% .21% .01%
Washington Twp. 1.00% .10%
Hammond Science & Tech
Bowman Academy
50. NORTH WHITE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Caston 34.40% 6.07% .12% .02%
West Central 29.26% 6.02% .16% .03%
Tri-County 25.18% 4.84% .11% .02%
Pioneer 9.64% .92%
DeMotte Christian 1.44% .06%
South Newton .08%
51. OREGON-DAVIS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Elkhart Christian 76.41% 68.96% 17.24% 9.98%
Culver 12.40% 6.87% .19% .03%
North Judson 8.89% 5.52% .22% .05%
Triton 2.21% .71%
Argos .06%
Trinity Academy .03%
52. FREMONT
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Fremont 88.90% 16.89% 6.45% 3.02%
Fort Wayne Blackhawk 10.45% .64% .05% .01%
Lakewood Park .56% .01%
Bethany Christian .09%
Hamilton .01%
Fort Wayne Canterbury
53. NORTH VERMILLION
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Fountain Central 75.44% 43.32% 4.25% 1.35%
Lafayette Central Catholic 11.51% 4.00% .12% .02%
Faith Christian 6.72% 1.96% .04% .01%
North Vermillion 5.31% 1.06% .01%
Riverton Parke .76% .09%
Attica .27% .01%
54. BETHESDA CHRISTIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Carroll (Flora) 59.57% 40.37% 1.88% .45%
Clinton Central 40.29% 23.81% .63% .11%
Bethesda Christian .09% .01%
Frontier .05%
55. SOUTHERN WELLS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Northfield 37.72% 20.96% 1.96% .60%
Southwood 37.11% 18.34% 1.27% .33%
North Miami 20.36% 9.24% .52% .12%
Southern Wells 4.82% 1.01% .01%
Cowan
Wes-Del
56. UNION CITY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Monroe Central 82.25% 33.99% .76% .13%
Randolph Southern 14.61% 1.77%
Union City 2.08% .03%
Blue River Valley 1.07% .01%
57. PURDUE BROAD RIPPLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Indianapolis Tindley 97.67% 31.15% 6.00% .84%
Anderson Prep 1.67% .02%
Indiana Deaf .60%
Purdue Broad Ripple .05%
58. GREENWOOD CHRISTIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Greenwood Christian 62.41% 28.77% .26% .01%
Eminence 36.91% 13.05% .05%
Victory College Prep .69% .05%
Traders Point Christian
59. WALDRON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Tri 38.40% 26.74% .72% .05%
Knightstown 31.65% 17.70% .18% .01%
North Decatur 14.90% 8.23% .08%
Edinburgh 7.99% 2.83% .01%
South Decatur 4.10% 1.65% .01%
Waldron 2.96% .98%
60. JAC-CEN-DEL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Trinity Lutheran 47.01% 36.86% 16.88% 5.20%
Oldenburg Academy 32.30% 23.50% 9.07% 2.34%
Shawe Memorial 18.01% 8.10% 1.23% .14%
Hauser 1.47% .24% .01%
Jac-Cen-Del .79% .10%
Rising Sun .42% .04%
Milan .01%
Crothersville
61. CLAY CITY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
White River Valley 38.80% 3.24% .03%
Clay City 26.31% 2.06% .01%
Shakamak 23.88% 2.99% .05%
Cloverdale 9.64% .78% .01%
Lighthouse Christian 1.36% .02%
North Central (Farmersburg)
62. NORTH DAVIESS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Orleans 47.48% 16.73% 5.09% 1.16%
Loogootee 24.85% 7.05% 1.51% .27%
Barr-Reeve 14.62% 3.18% .43% .06%
North Daviess 11.57% 2.07% .20% .02%
Vincennes Rivet 1.48% .17% .01%
Washington Catholic
63. WEST WASHINGTON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Borden 71.53% 59.59% 38.36% 17.40%
Christian Academy 11.64% 4.98% .81% .12%
Henryville 8.55% 3.62% .58% .08%
West Washington 6.74% 2.09% .19% .02%
South Central (Elizabeth) 1.54% .52% .06% .01%
New Washington
Rock Creek Academy
64. TECUMSEH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Springs Valley 50.33% 46.17% 9.51% 2.17%
Evansville Christian 37.26% 34.41% 7.62% 1.83%
Wood Memorial 11.90% 10.12% 1.05% .15%
Tecumseh .51% .20%