TOURNAMENT CHANCES
Chances of winning each round, based on ratings, draw and sites
Chance of less than .005% is not shown
Dark rules delineate between semistates
ORIGINAL PRE-TOURNAMENT CHANCES
CLASS 4A
1. MUNSTER
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Crown Point 60.87% 22.47% .52% .11%
Hammond Morton 19.78% 4.00% .02%
Lake Central 15.33% 1.32%
Hammond Central 3.05% .15%
Munster .97% .02%
2. VALPARAISO
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Valparaiso 87.38% 21.32% 4.14% 1.64%
Chesterton 9.32% .45% .01%
Merrillville 2.19% .02%
Portage .73%
Hobart .38%
3. PENN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Penn 96.26% 71.61% 4.11% 1.32%
South Bend Adams 2.01% .28%
South Bend Riley .97% .08%
LaPorte .72% .08%
Mishawaka .03%
Michigan City
South Bend Washington
4. GOSHEN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Warsaw 82.76% 70.44% 37.02% 26.11%
Northridge 16.41% 7.60% .99% .31%
Elkhart .80% .16%
Concord .02%
Goshen
5. CARROLL (FORT WAYNE)
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Fort Wayne Snider 54.96% 5.63% .38% .08%
Fort Wayne Northrop 28.18% 1.72% .05% .01%
Carroll (Fort Wayne) 16.86% .31%
Fort Wayne North
6. FORT WAYNE SOUTH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Homestead 65.46% 61.55% 33.65% 24.22%
Norwell 34.53% 30.79% 11.67% 6.78%
Huntington North .01%
Fort Wayne Wayne
Fort Wayne South
7. MCCUTCHEON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
McCutcheon 66.44% 29.64% 1.32% .37%
Lafayette Jeff 24.24% 6.42% .07% .01%
Harrison (West Lafayette) 5.50% .41%
Kokomo 3.82% .24%
8. CARMEL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Hamilton Southeastern 50.01% 38.63% 5.27% 2.50%
Carmel 16.53% 7.36% .13% .02%
Westfield 16.05% 9.86% .51% .15%
Fishers 8.23% 3.97% .09% .02%
Zionsville 5.04% 2.18% .03% .01%
Noblesville 4.13% 1.31% .01%
9. PENDLETON HEIGHTS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Pendleton Heights 84.62% 43.68% 8.36% 2.38%
Mount Vernon (Fortville) 8.29% 1.25% .02%
Greenfield-Central 5.04% .37%
Anderson 1.76% .06%
Richmond .28%
Muncie Central
10. NORTH CENTRAL (INDIANAPOLIS)
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Lawrence Central 87.51% 42.18% 21.66% 9.44%
North Central (Indianapolis) 6.42% .68% .04%
Lawrence North 4.66% .66% .06% .01%
Warren Central 1.40% .13% .01%
Indianapolis Arsenal Tech
11. PLAINFIELD
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Pike 64.27% 39.81% 23.90% 12.13%
Brownsburg 29.31% 14.65% 6.65% 2.59%
Plainfield 5.41% 1.76% .42% .10%
Avon .52% .05%
Ben Davis .50% .09% .01%
12. CENTER GROVE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Center Grove 60.43% 35.13% 7.36% 2.21%
Franklin Central 34.63% 18.10% 2.87% .73%
Decatur Central 4.87% 1.41% .05% .01%
Perry Meridian .04%
Southport .01%
Mooresville .01%
13. TERRE HAUTE NORTH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Bloomington South 80.04% 41.02% 4.44% .79%
Terre Haute South 10.93% 1.59% .01%
Bloomington North 6.95% 1.16% .01%
Martinsville 2.04% .14%
Terre Haute North .04%
14. COLUMBUS EAST
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Columbus North 40.55% 13.75% .95% .12%
Franklin 39.88% 17.43% 2.13% .39%
East Central 19.25% 6.57% .46% .06%
Whiteland .29% .01%
Columbus East .04%
15. NEW ALBANY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Floyd Central 58.36% 39.87% 7.63% 1.95%
Jeffersonville 17.73% 8.57% .53% .07%
Bedford North Lawrence 14.10% 5.34% .11% .01%
New Albany 8.52% 2.14% .02%
Seymour 1.30% .17%
16. CASTLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Evansville Reitz 58.74% 42.04% 10.37% 3.02%
Castle 29.48% 16.02% 1.75% .30%
Gibson Southern 9.19% 3.65% .18% .02%
Evansville North 2.31% .53% .01%
Evansville Harrison .28% .02%
CLASS 3A
17. CALUMET
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Highland 54.94% 12.58% .18% .01%
Hammond Noll 39.44% 6.47% .04%
East Chicago Central 4.07% .23%
Griffith 1.54% .05%
Gary West
Calumet
18. KANKAKEE VALLEY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Kankakee Valley 62.19% 17.90% 1.21% .15%
Lowell 22.29% 4.23% .13% .01%
Hanover Central 15.33% 1.15% .01%
River Forest .14%
Illiana Christian .06%
19. MISHAWAKA MARIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
South Bend St. Joseph 65.50% 57.27% 8.48% 2.07%
Culver Academy 23.66% 17.70% .92% .12%
John Glenn 8.41% 4.92% .08% .01%
Mishawaka Marian 1.41% .38%
Plymouth .98% .38%
New Prairie .04% .01%
20. TIPPECANOE VALLEY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Columbia City 52.26% 44.47% 13.26% 4.78%
Fairfield 29.38% 20.32% 2.45% .46%
Tippecanoe Valley 17.67% 11.79% 1.25% .21%
NorthWood .65% .14%
Wawasee .02%
West Noble .01%
21. EAST NOBLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
East Noble 58.30% 9.74% 2.37% .52%
Angola 11.72% .97% .08% .01%
DeKalb 8.65% .40% .01%
Leo 7.73% .44% .02%
Garrett 5.07% .25% .01%
Fort Wayne Concordia 4.41% .12%
Fort Wayne Dwenger 4.13% .15%
22. MISSISSINEWA
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Bellmont 97.34% 87.43% 56.59% 31.01%
Marion 1.95% .48% .01%
Mississinewa .59% .03%
Heritage .11%
New Haven .01%
23. WESTERN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Maconaquah 54.33% 16.70% .80% .11%
Peru 29.22% 5.11% .08% .01%
Western 12.80% .71%
West Lafayette 1.93% .13%
Twin Lakes 1.50% .04%
Logansport .21%
Northwestern .01%
24. YORKTOWN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Connersville 38.45% 32.66% 7.19% 2.49%
Delta 30.09% 23.51% 3.19% .81%
Jay County 12.57% 9.37% 1.00% .22%
Yorktown 7.68% 4.23% .13% .01%
Hamilton Heights 6.47% 4.42% .32% .05%
New Castle 4.75% 3.12% .19% .03%
25. LEBANON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Guerin Catholic 44.92% 22.05% .98% .24%
Brebeuf Jesuit 31.79% 13.50% .40% .08%
Tri-West 11.96% 3.08% .02%
Danville 8.29% 1.86% .01%
Lebanon 2.98% .31%
Crawfordsville .05%
Frankfort
26. INDIANAPOLIS SHORTRIDGE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Indianapolis Cathedral 51.03% 23.62% 5.99% 2.66%
Indianapolis Chatard 28.76% 10.02% 1.45% .47%
Purdue Englewood 15.47% 4.47% .44% .12%
Indianapolis Attucks 3.56% .46% .01%
Indianapolis Shortridge 1.19% .15%
Indianapolis Herron
27. EDGEWOOD
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Northview 49.97% 34.31% 2.87% .94%
Edgewood 39.15% 20.55% .61% .13%
Owen Valley 9.66% 4.12% .06% .01%
Cascade 1.08% .21%
Speedway .14% .02%
Indianapolis Washington
28. RUSHVILLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Indianapolis Roncalli 67.59% 50.00% 21.52% 12.95%
New Palestine 13.89% 5.53% .60% .17%
Shelbyville 12.20% 4.27% .27% .06%
Indian Creek 4.91% 1.24% .05% .01%
Beech Grove .98% .21% .01%
Rushville .43% .04%
Greenwood
29. FRANKLIN COUNTY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Greensburg 55.39% 31.30% 12.89% 8.03%
Jennings County 43.85% 22.24% 7.79% 4.44%
Batesville .41% .03%
Franklin County .25% .01%
Lawrenceburg .10% .01%
South Dearborn
30. CHARLESTOWN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Silver Creek 44.39% 24.41% 10.58% 6.78%
Madison 29.72% 11.50% 3.08% 1.52%
Charlestown 24.01% 10.32% 2.70% 1.32%
Corydon Central 1.45% .17% .01%
North Harrison .44% .02%
Scottsburg
31. VINCENNES LINCOLN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Washington 68.94% 57.10% 23.67% 15.59%
Princeton 22.69% 10.76% .70% .20%
Jasper 5.78% 3.08% .21% .06%
Vincennes Lincoln 2.55% .62% .01%
Southridge .03%
32. EVANSVILLE CENTRAL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Evansville Central 45.00% 15.94% 2.11% .82%
Heritage Hills 31.84% 9.66% .91% .30%
Boonville 17.26% 2.67% .04% .01%
Evansville Memorial 5.55% .18%
Mount Vernon (Posey) .26%
Evansville Bosse .09%
CLASS 2A
33. WHEELER
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Andrean 50.96% 8.82% .14% .02%
Wheeler 43.87% 5.55% .04%
Whiting 2.44% .04%
Hebron 2.31% .03%
Lake Station .35%
Boone Grove .07%
Gary 21st Century
34. LAVILLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Bremen 86.38% 77.77% 16.52% 7.13%
Winamac 10.04% 6.46% .12% .02%
LaVille 3.16% 1.24% .01%
Knox .23% .05%
Jimtown .20% .05%
Career Academy
35. LAKELAND
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Eastside 78.09% 22.33% 5.78% 2.12%
Central Noble 13.72% 1.30% .05% .01%
Westview 4.49% .32% .01%
Lakeland 3.52% .14%
Prairie Heights .15%
Churubusco .03%
36. WOODLAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Whitko 68.67% 58.43% 38.38% 26.58%
Bluffton 24.85% 15.88% 5.19% 2.21%
Adams Central 3.16% .63% .01%
Woodlan 1.71% .68% .07% .02%
Fort Wayne Luers 1.54% .27%
South Adams .08% .01%
37. BENTON CENTRAL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Rensselaer Central 65.38% 36.34% 11.80% 5.63%
Benton Central 32.27% 11.27% 1.56% .45%
Seeger 1.23% .16%
Delphi 1.04% .13%
Western Boone .08% .01%
North Montgomery .01%
38. WABASH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Oak Hill 60.36% 36.53% 3.44% 1.01%
Lewis Cass 30.22% 16.60% 1.14% .29%
Manchester 7.27% 3.05% .09% .02%
Rochester 2.13% .66% .01%
Wabash .02%
Eastern (Greentown)
39. LAPEL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Lapel 93.45% 51.80% 13.03% 5.31%
Sheridan 3.73% .22%
Frankton 1.72% .04%
Tipton 1.00% .02%
Elwood .09%
Taylor
40. WAPAHANI
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Alexandria 93.82% 42.92% 2.60% .62%
Blackford 3.68% .16%
Wapahani 1.69% .06%
Muncie Burris .67% .01%
Eastbrook .14%
Madison-Grant
41. SOUTH PUTNAM
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Southmont 58.03% 36.41% 3.76% .98%
Parke Heritage 27.48% 13.10% .56% .09%
South Putnam 7.37% 1.19%
North Putnam 6.64% 1.45% .01%
Greencastle .48% .05%
South Vermillion
42. PARK TUDOR
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Monrovia 47.96% 27.96% 2.63% .65%
University 21.43% 8.50% .24% .03%
Park Tudor 18.66% 7.14% .18% .02%
Covenant Christian 11.67% 4.18% .09% .01%
Indianapolis Ritter .28% .04%
Indianapolis Riverside
43. HERITAGE CHRISTIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Heritage Christian 48.70% 32.52% 5.35% 1.59%
Triton Central 38.96% 29.50% 7.71% 3.05%
Eastern Hancock 12.34% 7.56% .92% .23%
Indianapolis Scecina
KIPP Indy Legacy
Christel House
Irvington Prep
44. HAGERSTOWN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Northeastern 68.33% 27.51% 3.46% .87%
Union County 12.55% 1.92% .04%
Shenandoah 12.30% .74%
Hagerstown 5.65% .24%
Centerville 1.15% .02%
Winchester .01%
45. AUSTIN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Austin 55.03% 29.14% 5.69% 2.18%
Brownstown Central 26.87% 15.59% 3.76% 1.62%
Southwestern (Hanover) 15.59% 6.75% .84% .25%
South Ripley 2.03% .62% .04% .01%
Switzerland County .48% .05%
Brown County
46. EASTERN (PEKIN)
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Providence 49.78% 29.50% 7.95% 3.65%
Eastern (Pekin) 29.17% 12.82% 1.87% .61%
Crawford County 18.75% 5.33% .33% .07%
Clarksville .88% .06%
Lanesville .60% .04%
Salem .50% .06%
Paoli .32% .03%
Mitchell .01%
47. EASTERN GREENE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
South Knox 53.48% 36.14% 23.16% 14.91%
North Knox 35.79% 20.61% 10.48% 5.63%
Linton 10.44% 2.31% .20% .04%
Sullivan .25% .04%
West Vigo .02%
Eastern Greene .01%
48. TELL CITY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Evansville Mater Dei 59.64% 32.60% 19.39% 11.75%
North Posey 10.90% 2.43% .43% .11%
Perry Central 10.77% 1.94% .24% .05%
South Spencer 9.89% 1.98% .29% .07%
Forest Park 7.02% 1.77% .38% .11%
Tell City 1.78% .19% .01%
Pike Central
CLASS 1A
49. MORGAN TWP.
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Marquette Catholic 83.26% 69.11% 54.29% 42.87%
Kouts 7.75% 3.17% .97% .36%
Westville 2.87% .61% .07% .01%
Tri-Township 2.62% .27% .01%
Morgan Twp. 1.95% .31% .02%
Washington Twp. 1.55% .13%
Hammond Science & Tech
Bowman Academy
50. NORTH WHITE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
West Central 30.51% 6.54% .19% .03%
Tri-County 26.38% 5.30% .14% .02%
Caston 25.80% 4.94% .11% .02%
Pioneer 10.44% 1.11% .01%
North White 5.12% .45%
DeMotte Christian 1.58% .07%
South Newton .10%
North Newton .07%
51. OREGON-DAVIS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Elkhart Christian 76.88% 69.08% 18.06% 9.61%
North Judson 10.29% 6.46% .28% .06%
Culver 8.70% 4.75% .13% .02%
South Central (Union Mills) 1.66% .60%
Triton 1.45% .46%
Oregon-Davis .91% .22%
Argos .08% .01%
Trinity Academy .03%
52. FREMONT
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Fremont 91.00% 25.62% 11.33% 5.55%
Fort Wayne Blackhawk 8.40% .76% .06% .01%
Lakewood Park .49% .02%
Bethany Christian .08%
Lakeland Christian .02%
Hamilton .01%
Fort Wayne Canterbury
53. NORTH VERMILLION
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Fountain Central 75.64% 42.70% 4.33% 1.24%
Lafayette Central Catholic 11.84% 4.09% .13% .02%
Faith Christian 6.19% 1.73% .03%
North Vermillion 5.38% 1.08% .01%
Riverton Parke .74% .09%
Attica .19% .01%
Covington .01%
54. BETHESDA CHRISTIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Rossville 47.31% 35.98% 3.25% .93%
Carroll (Flora) 41.12% 28.05% 1.51% .33%
Clinton Central 10.20% 5.52% .12% .02%
Clinton Prairie 1.29% .34%
Frontier .05%
Bethesda Christian .04%
55. SOUTHERN WELLS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Northfield 38.83% 22.32% 2.37% .69%
Southwood 37.59% 18.65% 1.34% .31%
North Miami 16.34% 7.70% .48% .11%
Southern Wells 4.69% .96% .01%
Daleville 2.36% .66% .01%
Tri-Central .19% .02%
Cowan
Wes-Del
56. UNION CITY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Monroe Central 81.78% 28.59% .73% .11%
Randolph Southern 14.55% 1.46%
Union City 2.71% .05%
Blue River Valley .96% .01%
Cambridge City Lincoln
57. PURDUE BROAD RIPPLE
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Indianapolis Tindley 97.22% 23.57% 2.67% .32%
Anderson Prep 2.22% .02%
Indiana Deaf .54%
Purdue Broad Ripple .02%
Indiana Math & Science
58. GREENWOOD CHRISTIAN
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Greenwood Christian 52.50% 24.71% .21% .01%
Eminence 44.29% 17.44% .08%
Indianapolis Lutheran 2.86% .49%
Victory College Prep .33% .01%
Central Christian .01%
Traders Point Christian
59. WALDRON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Tri 39.96% 27.72% .66% .06%
Knightstown 25.07% 14.04% .13% .01%
North Decatur 15.66% 8.61% .07%
Edinburgh 10.03% 3.75% .01%
South Decatur 4.43% 1.78% .01%
Waldron 2.98% .96%
Morristown 1.85% .50%
Southwestern (Shelbyville) .02%
60. JAC-CEN-DEL
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Trinity Lutheran 47.95% 40.72% 17.61% 6.23%
Oldenburg Academy 31.57% 25.25% 8.89% 2.61%
Shawe Memorial 17.95% 9.96% 1.34% .18%
Hauser 1.33% .29% .01%
Jac-Cen-Del .78% .14%
Rising Sun .41% .05%
Milan .01%
Crothersville
61. CLAY CITY
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
White River Valley 34.23% 2.56% .02%
Clay City 27.80% 1.84% .01%
Shakamak 24.43% 2.57% .04%
Cloverdale 10.27% .71%
Bloomfield 2.21% .04%
Lighthouse Christian .99% .01%
Dugger Union .07%
North Central (Farmersburg)
62. NORTH DAVIESS
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Orleans 54.90% 21.57% 7.59% 2.39%
Loogootee 21.93% 6.07% 1.22% .26%
Barr-Reeve 12.23% 2.59% .33% .05%
North Daviess 9.71% 1.68% .15% .02%
Vincennes Rivet 1.24% .14% .01%
Shoals
Washington Catholic
63. WEST WASHINGTON
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Borden 72.83% 58.56% 36.96% 19.14%
Christian Academy 10.97% 4.12% .60% .10%
Henryville 8.12% 3.02% .44% .07%
West Washington 6.59% 1.80% .15% .02%
South Central (Elizabeth) 1.48% .44% .04% .01%
Rock Creek Academy
New Washington
64. TECUMSEH
SECTREGNSEMISTATE
Springs Valley 53.80% 50.22% 11.91% 3.61%
Evansville Christian 34.76% 32.51% 7.89% 2.43%
Wood Memorial 10.86% 9.29% .93% .16%
Tecumseh .43% .17%
Northeast Dubois .15% .08%
Cannelton